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SOMETHING TO THINK ABOUT WHENVER YOU HEAR ON THE NEWS ABOUT HOW THE LATEST POLL NUMBERS ARE TURNING IN INDECISION 2008--as in a lesson from history on how and why poll numbers can't always be trusted as credible or may show signs of bias of prejudice:

Modern scientific polling techniques can be attributed, in large measure, to the fallout from the star-crossed Literary Digest Presidential Straw Poll in the 1936 Presidential elections, which predicted that then-Republican Presidential candidate Alf Landon would deny incumbent Democratic President Franklin Delano Roosevelt a second term. But, as things turned out, FDR won a second term, while Landon took only Maine and Vermont--an outcome which the upstart pollster George Gallup correctly predicted just days before The Literary Digest pulled its whopper, using his newly-developed scientific approaches to polling as relied on using random samples spread across various parts of the country and with reasonable representation across the several demographic groups.

(In the case of The Literary Digest, their polling technique was fatally flawed right from the get-go: They relied on their own subscriber mailing list, as well as purchased lists of automotive registrations and telephone subscriptions--some 10 million names in all, of which they got back some 2 million responses, for a response rate of 20%--to come up with a rather broad statistical sample for their "straw poll." Broad--and, as it turned out, biased socioeconomically in favour of such who had stable incomes by Great Depression standards and, hence, were likely to vote Republican all the more come November, as the prevailing thinking went.)

Once the final result showed that FDR had won a second term for his "New Deal," The Literary Digest, itself a rather prestigious and respected weekly review of the news, arts, literature and drama, wound up with the proverbial egg on its face and promised that things would be better next time around.

Only there would be no next time for The Literary Digest: Fallout from the Presidential Straw Poll debacle translated into loss of subscribers and advertisers, forcing Funk & Wagnalls, who published same since 1890, to discontinue its publication within a year's time.

Something to think about before falling for some "opt-in poll" such as the likes of NewsMax advertises across the Information Stuporbahn with some slogan like "Is Obama Finished? Vote Here Now!"

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COULD IT BE THAT WALLY WORLD IS ENGAGING IN DELIBERATE SICK HUMOUR @ THE EXPENSE OF PARENTS SHOPPING FOR SCHOOL SUPPLIES by way of "back-to-school shopping lists" as turn out being inaccurate or otherwise misleading?

The Wale Up Wal-Mart blog thought so back in August, just as the "back-to-school" shopping was starting in many areas of the country:

So apparently Wal-Mart has been forging back to school shopping lists complete with details making it look like an official school list. One imagines that this was an attempt to get parents to buy a few extra supplies, but why in the world did they think they could get away with this? Perhaps the best detail of this story is that the fake list included items banned from schools.

The full story is posted below from Kelby Carr. Enjoy!

My daughter is about to start kindergarten, so naturally we did some back to school shopping. Our state sales tax break weekend happened recently. When we noticed the local Wal-Mart had shopping lists not only specific to school and grade level, but to teacher, we were thrilled. We started tossing items in the cart to spend, spend, spend.

Weren’t we a little surprised to learn afterwards that Wal-Mart invented those lists. Not only were we a bit surprised to learn they did not, in fact, base the lists on anything remotely suggested by the school. Wal-Mart, in fact, put items on the list that are BANNED from being brought to school.

Our daughter’s school said Wal-Mart makes up those lists on their own, and a number of items (such as crayons) are on a list from the school. A list of items parents are specifically told not to have their child bring to school. Seriously?

The real back to school list also featured several items that are not on Wal-Mart’s list.

So these lists are, in essence, a trick to get parents (and I can only assume, being that it’s a discount store like Wal-Mart, a great many parents who are on a tight budget) to drop cash on unnecessary purchases. That really aggravates me. It isn’t a big deal if I buy a few extra supplies. I can afford it, and I am sure we will use these items elsewhere. I wouldn’t have bought them otherwise, but it isn’t the end of the world.

But what if I was broke? Or a single mom living on a low income? Or both? I truck over to Wal-Mart thinking I will stretch my precious dollars, only to drop cash on crap I don’t need just because I am trying hard to be sure my poor child isn’t embarrassed by missing needed supplies. That part of it sickens me.

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I can imagine they would say that they are making these lists as suggestions to assist shopping parents. (In fact, Wal-Mart officials can feel free to comment and explain the rationale here. I will definitely approve your comments, and would frankly love to hear your explanation).

Here is the problem with that, however. I have done things like create registries and so forth. Often there is a suggested list of items to get or add to the list. Always, it is clear to me these items are not necessary. So, for example, Wal-Mart could make a list that is titled something like, “Suggested Back to School Items for Kindergartners.” Shoot, even then I would make the top of the page have a statement along the lines that these are suggestions and are not an official list from the school.

Instead, there is no way to describe these lists except as ones that are trying very hard to look official. They have a fax send line at the top of the page (who on earth faxed these, if not the schools?). They not only state the school, but also the grade level and they have various lists based on teacher. Each teacher has slightly different supplies required. If that doesn’t look like something official from the school, I’m not sure what would. Perhaps adding a medieval wax seal to each list?

I also presume other retail stores are doing the same thing, but I honestly haven’t checked.

Either way, be sure you get your back to school shopping list from the school itself. And let me know what’s on it. Because right now I have a shopping bag packed with crap I don’t need. Classy.

(In the interest of fairness, it might be worth knowing that Kmart, ShopKo and Target all provide official, school-specific shopping lists directly from the schools themselves during the relevant season in these parts.)

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SPEAKING OF "DROPPING CASH ON UNNECESSARY PURCHASES," ESPECIALLY HEADING INTO THE HOLIDAY SEASON, may I remind all of you about my previous suggestion to consider giving Savings Bonds or other Treasury securities instead, what with the star-crossed Paulson Plan to Save Our Socioeconomic Model and Paradigm likely to cost tax money--and the Zealots and True Believers of Neo-Conservatism-cum-Fascism forever insisting that low taxes=jobs=social stability and order perhaps needing to start waking up to Reality.

Even if it takes a steaming bowl of menudo (a Mexican tripe stew traditionally regarded as effective against hangovers) to accomplish such ends, with the inevitable Tex Averyesque reactions.

Meanwhile, the Chinese tainted milk scandal ensueth all the further, what with the European Union's 27 member states en bloc banning sale of milk-based products from China, especially so milk powder, infant formula and "White Rabbit" brand creamy candies. Likewise with China's two Special Administrative Regions of Hong Kong and Macau ... Taiwan ... Australia ... New Zealand ... and, most unlikely of all, Suriname, where a sizable ethnic Chinese community exists, which has imposed a ban on said "White Rabbit" sweets. (The United States, of course, doesn't see too many powdered milk products from China on sale; however, just to be on the safe side, consumers are being advised to be wary of online stores selling Chinese powdered milk products.)